Elon Musk having confidence in the future of Full Self-Driving technology in Tesla vehicles in Europe is running into a more muted, more apprehensive reality of the situation behind the scenes. Even as the company hopes to gain consent across the European Union, in-house communication among the regulators is much more cautious. Those debates show that the way towards acceptance of the automated-driving system developed by Tesla can be longer and more difficult than it is proclaimed publicly.
The bone of contention is the Full Self-Driving (Supervised) system by Tesla also known as FSD. The technology, that enables a vehicle to perform a significant number of driving tasks autonomously, even though the vehicle still requires a driver, was recently endorsed by the Dutch road authority, RDW. This national approval has now been tabled as a case study to be considered by a wider European committee to review such technologies.
Musk has said that he believes in a rapid growth. We hope that we will be approved in many other countries soon and the momentum of regulation will follow. His bigger picture is that one day he will be able to introduce fully driverless robotaxis in Europe, a move that would radically transform the movement of people in cities. However, this prospective vision is a stark contrast with the skeptical sounding coming out of regulators in various European nations.
The emails between the authorities in countries like Sweden, Finland, Denmark, Norway and the Netherlands reveal several issues related to the safety and reliability of the system. These are not abstract concerns but rather concrete, real-life questions on how the technology would respond to demanding situations. The most common problem is the fact that the system is prone to drive beyond the speed limit. To regulators who are concerned with the security of the people, even minor discrepancies in speed control can have enormous consequences.
Hans Nordin, a researcher at the Swedish transport agency, came out with his surprise right out. very astonished to hear that Tesla had permitted FSD to accelerate, and that they had said they should not be allowed to do that. His response is indicative of a larger hope of European regulators that automated systems be strictly responsive to traffic laws without the leeways that are often given to human drivers.
Another element of complexity is weather conditions. Countries in Northern Europe, where icy roads are a common feature of daily life are especially interested in how FSD performs in winter conditions. In internal correspondence, an official of the transportation agency in Finland, Jukka Juhola, made one of the most insightful questions: Are they really introducing a system that can allow hands-free driving even on the icy 80 km/h roads? His concern is a fundamental problem with autonomous systems which have to perform both in idealized conditions and in the realities of daily driving that are unpredictable.
Regulators are also looking at the manner the technology is pitching to consumers besides its technical performance. Even the very name Full Self-Driving (Supervised) has come under attack. There are some officials who are concerned that this may create a false impression, which may lead one to assume that there is a degree of autonomy that is not provided by the system. Nordin questioned this directly, asking whether the name “risks giving consumers a misleading impression” of FSD’s abilities. Such issues bear a lot of weight in a regulatory environment that attaches high importance to transparency and consumer protection.
Simultaneously, the feedback is not completely negative. It has been recognised by some regulators that the system is effective in complex traffic scenarios. According to a Danish official, Tesla cars did indeed perform very well in the complex traffic of Copenhagen during rush hours. In the same manner, a Dutch regulator explained the high score in going through the tricky traffic conditions surrounding the Arc de Triomphe in Paris. These observations indicate that although there are still some concerns, the technology has shown some obvious advantages in some settings.
Nevertheless, the road to EU-wide adoption is not going to be paved with single success stories. The European Union needs a qualified majority vote, which is, support to the countries representing the majority of the member states as well as the majority share of the population. No vote is planned in the short term and the debate will probably proceed throughout the next several months. Such a conservative attitude to the implementation of new technologies, especially those with direct safety consequences, is typical of the EU.
The other area of tension has been the engagement strategy of Tesla. Regulators have been complaining of what they feel are efforts to indirectly influence the approval process. After being urged by Musk to do so, Tesla owners started to contact regulatory bodies in high numbers, asking them to grant FSD. Although this shows high customer excitement, this has not been universally accepted by authorities.
A Norwegian regulator noted that authorities will have to apply a lot of effort to reach out to deceived consumers, and the administrative cost of such campaigns can be substantial. Tesla policy executive responded by admitting that such emails are generally not helpful to the approval process. This discussion highlights the fragility of a balance between advocacy and regulation of the people.
Timing has come into question too. In one case, Tesla came to the Swedish authorities requesting permission just days after the Dutch ruling, prior to regulators even fully examining the supporting documentation. The same was done to Finland and Estonia, where they were urged to accept the Dutch authorization. Although these moves can be seen as a sign of confidence in the technology, they have only served to reinforce the notion by some regulators that the process is being forced forward too swiftly.
In terms of business, the stakes are high. Tesla performance in Europe has not been without its challenges over the past few years where sales have been going down and competition has been on the increase, especially with the Chinese electric vehicle manufacturers. FSD approval may enable Tesla to establish additional revenues by providing subscription plans and make Tesla more established in the region. According to the industry analysts, a large scale application of the technology may see a massive increase in the profitability of the company and could also ensure that the company gains lost grounds.
