Kristina Roberts
When Tesla’s board of directors announced Elon Musk’s massive pay package in September 2025, it made headlines all over the world. The deal was said to be the largest executive pay offer in corporate history, worth a total of $878 billion in Tesla stock over the next ten years. The company described this offer as a reward for Musk’s extraordinary goals — what they called “Mars-shot milestones.” In simple words, these goals were supposed to be as difficult as sending humans to Mars.
According to the board, Musk would need to completely transform Tesla and even society itself. His targets involved major advances in robotics, self-driving cars, robotaxis, profits, and Tesla’s stock value. The message was clear — if Musk wanted the money, he would have to make Tesla do something the world had never seen before. They even claimed that he would get “zero” if he failed to meet those “incredibly ambitious” goals.
However, a deeper look by Reuters and several experts paints a very different picture. It turns out that Elon Musk might still make tens of billions of dollars even if he doesn’t come close to achieving most of those grand dreams. The Reuters team studied his goals and consulted over a dozen specialists — including experts in company valuations, executive pay, robotics, and autonomous driving — and discovered that some of Musk’s targets are actually quite easy to achieve.
In fact, if Musk meets only a few of the easier goals, he could collect over $50 billion, according to the review. These goals, while part of his official pay plan, might not require him to truly revolutionize Tesla’s technology or change the world in the way the company’s board described.
To put it into perspective, experts say that even if Musk achieves just two of the simplest goals and Tesla’s stock grows modestly, he could still earn $26 billion. That amount is more than what the next eight best-paid CEOs combined have earned in their entire careers. This group includes some of the most powerful names in the tech industry — Mark Zuckerberg from Meta, Larry Ellison from Oracle, Tim Cook from Apple, and Jensen Huang from Nvidia.
Four experts from the automotive industry reviewed Musk’s vehicle sales targets and found them surprisingly easy. According to their analysis, if Tesla sells about 1.2 million cars per year on average over the next decade, Musk could earn $8.2 billion in stock. To achieve this, Tesla’s market value would need to grow from $1.4 trillion today to $2 trillion by 2035, which is actually lower than the typical market growth rate. What makes this even more surprising is that the goal is half a million fewer cars per year than Tesla sold in 2024. In other words, the target is not ambitious at all — it’s easier than what Tesla already achieved last year.
Earlier this week, Tesla also revealed lower-cost versions of its Model Y SUV and Model 3 sedan. The company hopes that these new versions will help recover from its recent dip in sales. This step might make it even easier for Musk to hit his sales targets, which could unlock another chunk of his huge pay package.
But it’s not just about car sales. Musk also has several product development goals, which involve Tesla’s work on robotics and autonomous driving. Yet six experts who specialize in robotics and self-driving technology told Reuters that these goals are written in vague and unclear language. They believe this could make it possible for Musk to earn massive payouts without really making major progress in these areas. For example, some of the targets do not specify what counts as a “fully self-driving” car or how far the technology should advance to be considered successful. Without specific standards, Tesla could easily claim progress and reward Musk even if real-world results are limited.
These findings have sparked conversations among investors, analysts, and regular Tesla fans. Many people admire Musk for his ambitious ideas — from building rockets at SpaceX to developing humanoid robots and electric vehicles — but others question whether such a large pay deal is fair if the goals are not truly challenging. Critics argue that shareholders might expect clearer rules about how Musk earns his rewards.
Supporters, however, say Musk deserves every bit of his pay because he has made Tesla one of the most valuable companies in the world. They believe that his vision and leadership are what keep Tesla ahead of its competitors. Musk’s supporters often point out that his plans — even if they sound wild — have a way of changing industries over time. For instance, Tesla made electric cars popular, and SpaceX changed how people think about space travel.
Even so, Reuters noted that many of the “Mars-shot” goals that Tesla’s board talked about — such as robotaxis and advanced robots — remain uncertain. The company has made some progress but has not yet reached the level of technology that Musk often talks about in his public statements. And with the goals written in flexible terms, experts worry that Musk could still earn billions while Tesla’s actual products might not advance as much as expected.
When Reuters asked Tesla and Musk for comments about the findings, they did not respond. This silence has left people wondering how the company will defend the fairness of the plan.
Musk’s story continues to fascinate the world. He is known for setting impossible goals and still finding ways to surprise people. But this new pay deal raises important questions about how much is too much — even for someone as influential as him.
If Musk can earn tens of billions of dollars without achieving his most ambitious dreams, it makes people think: is this reward truly for changing the world, or just for staying successful? As Tesla continues to grow, investors and the public will be watching closely to see if Musk truly delivers the “Mars-shot” results he once promised, or if he earns his fortune without ever leaving Earth.
