The Kantar Worldpanel, which monitors supermarket pricing, sales, and market share, reported that grocery inflation eased to 1.6% in the four weeks ending July 7, down from 2.1% the previous month. This marks the lowest level since September 2021 and continues a 17-month trend of declining monthly inflation rates since a peak after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

According to Kantar, price increases were most notable in categories like vitamins/minerals/supplements and chilled fruit juices, while prices continued to drop for items such as toilet rolls, butter, and dog food.

The competition spurred by supermarket promotions during Euro 2024, particularly in beer and snacks, intensified, driving stronger competition between chains. Kantar noted a 2% increase in shopping trips during the period compared to the same time last year, likely influenced by fans stocking up for England and Scotland’s group games and England’s quarter-final against Switzerland, the latest match day for which data was available.

Fraser McKevitt, head of retail and consumer insight at Kantar, highlighted the impact of football on the grocery industry, noting that despite England’s recent loss, there was cause for celebration among retailers.

“Football fans drove beer sales up by an average of 13% on days when the England men’s team played, compared to the same day the previous week,” McKevitt said. “Sales of crisps and snacks also saw a boost, up by 5% compared to the previous month.”

He added, “With many matches scheduled on ‘school nights,’ some Britons opted for moderation. Spending on no and low-alcohol beer surged by 38% on match days.”

Kantar has previously attributed promotional activities to boosting sales and tempering inflation, with periods like Christmas typically witnessing peak discount activity.

Further details on the impact of beer sales during Euro 2024 were anticipated later on Tuesday. The primary data was released just ahead of official inflation figures for June, scheduled for publication within 24 hours.

Economists anticipate that the consumer prices index will decrease to 1.9% from the previous month’s 2%.

In financial markets, opinions are evenly split: half expect the Bank of England to find sufficient evidence in this week’s inflation data, followed closely by employment figures, to support an anticipated interest rate cut on 1 August.

Policymakers are particularly interested in seeing continued evidence that services inflation is moderating and that wage growth is stabilizing.