S Poddar
This is the most expensive borrowing climate Britain has seen in more than 25 years. This financial difficulty is coming due to increasing trade tensions, particularly the escalating confrontation between the United States and China under Donald Trump’s presidency, which has resulted in an explosion of market anxiety across the globe.
Long-term UK government bond yields, or gilts, have risen to their highest since 1998 levels. The 30-year gilt yield rose by up to 0.25 percentage points to a record 5.65%. This big increase puts further pressure on public finances and casts a cloud over the fiscal policy of the government, spearheaded by Chancellor Rachel Reeves.
Benchmark 10-year gilt yields also rose higher, adding to an already increasing financial cost. With borrowing now much more expensive, Reeves is faced with a tightening vice: how to finance increasing debt while following budget rules she imposed on herself. Only last month, the Chancellor hurried through a package of welfare reforms and spending reductions in a last-ditch bid to keep the budget under control. Despite this, there is mounting speculation that the government will have to announce more tax increases in the next autumn statement, particularly as recession hangs over the global economy.
Markets worldwide have been under siege of unusually high volatility as faith in the safety of US Treasuries—a pillar of global finance—has started to falter. Investors, growing wary of the certainty of these assets, are selling government bonds in bulk. This has resulted in increasing yields not only in the UK, but in most advanced economies.
In the meantime, geopolitical tensions have served only to exacerbate economic uncertainty. China has said it will start charging an eye-watering 84% tariff on American products from Thursday. The move is a dramatic escalation of the trade war between the world’s two biggest economies. The Chinese ministry of finance justified the new tariffs as a 50% rise on the originally intended rate of 34%, sharply escalating the stakes in already tense economic times.
“Donald Trump planted a commemorative tree at the White House just before US tariffs kicked in.”
This symbolic-looking photo couldn’t have been more out of touch with the economic storm brewing. As Trump stood for photoshoots in the White House garden, China and the EU were making secret preparations for retaliation. The EU formally approved a €21bn package of tariffs on US exports, meanwhile. The rising bulwark of protectionist measures on every front indicates that the world economy is moving into an era characterized by lower cooperation, higher nationalism, and greater financial risk.
Adding yet more credence to recession fears, a senior executive at America’s Federal Reserve cautioned that US growth will slow “materially” in the near term. The comments add to the chorus of financial analysts now forecasting that a downturn is more probable than not. JP Morgan Chief Executive Jamie Dimon concurred, declaring bluntly that a US recession is a “likely outcome” based on current directions in global economic trends.
These interlinked pressures—increasing borrowing rates, weakening global trade positions, and financial market volatility—present policymakers with a tricky conundrum. The condition in the UK is especially treacherous. Reeves’ attempts at fiscal credibility are being probed by forces beyond her remit, from US policy to Chinese retaliatory trade and general investor mood.
While attempts have been made to signal stability, the markets look as though they are pricing a far more volatile future. Gilt yields signal investor anxiety not just about the financial position of the UK but also about the general risk climate. A global bond sell-off, traditionally one of the safest places to be, shows that uncertainty is not solely a British phenomenon.
As both public and private borrowing gets more costly, households and companies are preparing for possible knock-on effects. Mortgage rates might nudge upwards. Firms, particularly those dependent on credit, might start cutting back on investment. And governments everywhere, with increasing debt loads, will have less fiscal space to react to possible crises.
In this high-pressure environment, each policy choice has disproportionate repercussions. For the UK, it’s a delicate balancing act between propping up the economy and keeping public finances in check. For the US, the question is whether current and future leaders can ride out the consequences of trade wars and sustain global confidence. For China and the EU, their retaliation is a bet—an expression of strength in an environment where cooperation has increasingly given way to individualism.
One thing is sure as the financial world absorbs the implications of these rapid changes: the global economy is entering a new era where unpredictability will become the rule and old concepts of safety, growth, and cooperation will no longer apply.
