S Poddar
Pep Guardiola arrived at the iconic Bernabeu Stadium fully aware of the monumental task ahead—Manchester City must defy both expectations and footballing logic to progress. This is a ground that has witnessed countless miracles, most of them favoring Real Madrid.
Spanish strategist has felt all the emotions in this iconic stadium, having been on its touchline with Barcelona, Bayern Munich, and now Manchester City. On Wednesday, he will be standing with his old friend and nemesis once again, Real Madrid’s Carlo Ancelotti. In the event of a City victory, it will count among Guardiola’s greatest managerial victories.
Though the task is formidable, Guardiola is realistic, estimating his side’s chances of overturning their 3-2 first-leg deficit at a mere “1%.” Locals in Madrid, familiar with their club’s history of European supremacy, think even that percentage may be too high.
Standing in front of the media at the Bernabeu, a venue that once considered him an enemy because he was Barcelona, Guardiola’s message was clear. “We have to play the perfect game,” he said. “We have to attack, we have to score goals. That’s the objective.”
Heads set on avoiding regrets, he insisted that City has to play with courage. “We need to be ourselves. It requires unbelievable courage, and we have to play to win. We might still lose, but at least we have to display our identity.”
Statistically, City’s opportunities of going through are marginally improved than what Guardiola indicated, with Opta placing them at 19.8%. But statistics are of little consequence when faced with Real Madrid’s unassailable history in this competition. Their 15 European titles are a telling indication of the psychological strength in the club’s bloodline.
Guardiola’s record against Real Madrid with City has been a rollercoaster. He initially beat them in the Champions League last 16 in 2020, with both legs six months apart because of the Covid-19 pandemic. But in 2022, City were left heartbroken at the Bernabeu when they threw away a two-goal aggregate advantage in stoppage time, Rodrygo’s late heroics and Karim Benzema’s penalty ensuring Real’s route to the final.
In 2023, it was sweet revenge as Guardiola guided City to a comprehensive 5-1 aggregate win in the semi-final on their way to their first-ever Champions League title. Madrid turned the tables last season, though, advancing on penalties.
Looking back on his days at the Bernabeu, he stated, “I have some amazing memories here—some good, some bad. Pressure is always present at this stage and in this stadium, but it’s present at Milan, Barcelona, and Anfield as well. You have to suffer those moments, but you also have to try to reduce them.”
The dazzling 2022 return is just the type of spark Guardiola will look to reverse in City’s fortunes this time around. But he will have to do it with a team that seems to be in decline. Their stranglehold on England has slipped since claiming an unprecedented four in a row Premier League crowns, and now they are staring the embarrassment of exiting Europe before the last 16 for the first time in 12 years in the face.
In the meantime, Ancelotti, ever the seasoned campaigner, was not tempted into Guardiola’s estimation of the probabilities. “He doesn’t actually believe that,” the Italian said with a dry smile. “We don’t think we have a 99% chance either. We have a narrow margin, and we must use it to our advantage.”
Guardiola joked back, “For the first time, he doesn’t believe me. I always say what I think, and this time you don’t believe me.”
City’s task is made more formidable by statistics. Real Madrid have won the away leg of a European knockout tie 40 times, going on to advance on 37 occasions. City, on the other hand, have never managed to overturn a first-leg Champions League knockout deficit, having been knocked out on all four previous occasions when they were behind after the first game.
For Ancelotti, this encounter represents his 10th Champions League encounter with Guardiola, of which eight were as Real Madrid’s manager versus City. Ancelotti leads by a nose, having beaten four of their nine meetings and never losing on home soil, with two wins and two draws.
Sounding alarm for City is their recent away performance in the tournament, losing their past three away matches to Sporting, Juventus, and Paris Saint-Germain.
But a morale-lifting 4-0 win over Newcastle at the weekend provided a glimmer of hope. New Egyptian recruit Omar Marmoush scored a stunning first-half hat-trick, and Erling Haaland, who scored twice in the first leg, is still a major threat. The Norwegian has 49 goals in 48 Champions League games. A goal at the Bernabeu would make him the quickest player to reach 50 goals, both in games played and age.
This match may also signal the end of an era for a few of City’s contemporary greats in the Champions League. Kevin De Bruyne, Ilkay Gundogan, and goalkeeper Ederson are all at an age where their futures are in doubt, while Bernardo Silva and Mateo Kovacic have also crossed into their 30s.
Guardiola chose to remain tight-lipped on the matter, saying, “I’d love to answer that, but we’ll discuss it at the end of the season. There’s still a lot to play for—Champions League qualification for next season, the FA Cup, the Club World Cup. Right now, all our focus is on Madrid.”
Silva reflected a feeling of resilience, saying, “If you had said to me at the beginning of the season that we’d be in this position in the Champions League and the Premier League, I wouldn’t have believed you. We deserve to be in this difficult situation because of the way we played. But we have to believe. We still believe things can change, and this season is a lesson for the future.”
For Manchester City, the future is here. The Bernabeu is in wait, a theater where legends are born and dreams are shattered. If Guardiola can lead his team beyond the supposedly insurmountable odds, it will be right among the greatest achievements of his illustrious career.
