Thames Water is in a sticky situation, and it’s not just about the water. They want to hike customer bills by a whopping 52% or even 59% over the next few years. But here’s the twist: the regulator, Ofwat, already told them that a 40% increase was too much and suggested 23% instead. Thames’ new plan seems like a bad joke. Who would think a bigger number is better after being told to scale down?

If you think these bill increases are a small change, think again. Right now, the average bill is around £436. By 2030, it could shoot up to around £666 or £696 if Thames gets its way. And remember, these numbers don’t even include inflation, which means the actual cost could be even higher. Ofwat’s earlier suggestion was around £535, so it’s clear there’s a big gap between what Thames wants and what’s reasonable.

Thames Water argues that their earlier calculations were off because they overestimated how many new people would be moving into their service area. In other words, they thought they’d have more customers to spread the costs over, but that’s not the case. They also claim that Ofwat is not fully grasping the real costs of running a massive water company with all its pipes, sewers, and treatment plants that need constant upgrades. Thames says their business plan just isn’t financially feasible under Ofwat’s terms.

But wait a minute—who’s really to blame here? Thames Water’s past is filled with financial missteps, and many of their problems are self-inflicted. The company was previously owned by financial engineers who milked it dry, and the current owners didn’t fully realize how many operational problems they were dealing with. Just last month, Thames was slapped with a provisional fine of £104 million because of failures at their sewage plants, which shows a pattern of broken promises on improving their environmental impact.

Thames Water’s latest stubborn stance on their business plan makes one thing clear: unless Ofwat has a major change of heart, Thames is not going to get the £3.3 billion in equity from new investors that they desperately need. And let’s be honest, who would invest in a company whose own leaders are telling people not to?

So, what’s likely to happen next? Financial restructuring seems to be the only way out. Shareholders already know their investments are basically worthless at this point. The next group on the chopping block? The bondholders, who are the people or organizations that loaned Thames Water money. Thames has about £15 billion in debt, and there’s no way they can keep up with those payments. The solution might be to reduce this debt through special administration or by swapping debt for equity, which means bondholders would trade their loans for ownership stakes. Either way, the lenders are going to have to take some losses, which could finally give Thames the financial breathing room it needs to turn things around.

Thames Water’s chairman, Sir Adrian Montague, recently made a statement that it’s the company, the regulators, and the government’s job to find solutions that work best for customers and the environment. Sounds fair, right? But there’s a glaring omission: bondholders. It’s almost like Sir Adrian is hoping nobody notices that bondholders should be sharing the pain too.

Let’s be real—customers aren’t stupid. They understand that bills will go up to pay for much-needed improvements, not just at Thames, but across all water companies in England and Wales. But how much bills should rise is the real debate. Customers also know that if this were any other company that messed up financially, the bondholders would be first in line to take a hit. Thames Water should be no different. If explaining to international investors that they can lose money by lending to a UK utility is “difficult,” then Sir Adrian and his team will just have to get over it. It’s time for Thames Water to own up to its mistakes, make the tough calls, and start fixing the mess they’ve made. The world will keep turning, and maybe, just maybe, Thames Water can too.