London Markets Chill, US Data Sparks Rate Cut Buzz!

The benchmark index of leading British companies, the FTSE 100, was mixed Friday, briefly coming within spitting distance of a new record without quite touching it. The index added just 5 points at 8,385, as it fell back below 8,400 after approaching May’s all-time high of 8,445.

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In London the headlines were grabbed by the big companies, which were mostly sideways for the session. Weighing on the index was a pullback in shares of two major oil companies, Shell and BP, as the price of oil fell. Declines had hit because of concerns about weaker demand more than they had offsets from supply jitter related to possible supply cuts by Libya.

The biggest gainer in the FTSE 100 was Londonmetric Property PLC, a property manager, up 3.4%. It was a recovery after falling earlier. In contrast, Whitbread PLC, the parent company of Premier Inn, was the biggest loser of the day, down 1.6%. Earlier in the week, it was performing well but suffered a setback.

Down the Atlantic, in the US, things were a little more exciting. The US stock markets—Nasdaq, S and P 500, and Dow Jones—poured in strong at the opening thanks to some new economic data showing inflation was not as high as expected. The Nasdaq surged 0.9%, the S&P 500 0.6%, and the Dow Jones 0.4%.

Data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis indicated that the Personal Consumption Expenditures index grew by 2.5% over the year, equal to June’s growth. Core PCE, devoid of food and energy, increased by 2.6%—just below a projected 2.7%. Expectations for inflation figures to move slightly less gave some hope that the Federal Reserve may be willing to reduce interest rates soon.

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These lower inflation numbers most likely signal a spate of interest rate cuts in the US in the coming months, analysts say. Isabel Albarran from Close Brothers Asset Management commented, “This data supports expectations for rate cuts.” As this inflation cools off, the Federal Reserve is expected to pay close attention to the labor market, especially after recent job reports considered weaker.

In the housing sector, results were published from Barratt Developments plc, a big homebuilder, amidst fresh optimism for housebuilding. Housebuilding shares have received a boost after Labour’s recent election victory on promises to build 1.5 million new homes over the next five years. Barratt is well positioned for this policy, particularly after purchasing smaller rival Redrow PLC in a £2.5million deal.

Not everything is plain sailing, though. Deutsche Bank analysts cut their profit forecasts for Barratt, citing challenges such as low sales, planning delays, and fire-safety issues. Barratt has already cut its target on the number of homes it plans to build next year. Analysts from Jefferies said that while there are opportunities for Barratt in the improving housing market, there are also risks-particularly around the integration of Redrow and accounting for fire-safety provisions.

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Overall, the FTSE 100 index of London failed to break the record as well, all while major oil companies had a rough time. The US, however, responded cheerfully to stronger than expected inflation data that fostered hopes of cutting down interest rates beneficial for the broader economy. In the UK, while the prospects for the homebuilding market are good, given new policies incorporating, it is still fraught with big challenges for the likes of Barratt.

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