The question of whether humans will be alive in the next 100 years is one that has been debated for centuries. In 2020, Toby Ord estimated the existential risk in the next century at “1 in 6” in his book The Precipice: Existential Risk and the Future of Humanity. As of July 2023, Metaculus users estimate a 3% probability of human extinction by 2100. While the odds of extinction may seem low, it is important to consider the various factors that could lead to the demise of the human race.

One of the most pressing threats to human survival is climate change. Rising temperatures, melting ice caps, and extreme weather events are all signs of a changing climate. If left unchecked, climate change could have devastating consequences for humanity. For example, sea levels could rise to the point where coastal cities become uninhabitable, food production could be drastically reduced, and extreme weather events could cause mass displacement of people.

Another potential threat to human survival is the development of artificial intelligence (AI). AI is rapidly advancing, and some experts believe that it could eventually surpass human intelligence. If this were to happen, it could lead to a scenario where AI-powered machines are able to out-think and out-maneuver humans, leading to the potential for AI to take control of the world.

In addition to climate change and AI, there are other potential threats to human survival. These include pandemics, nuclear war, and asteroid impacts. Each of these threats has the potential to cause mass destruction and death, and if not addressed, could lead to the extinction of the human race.

The good news is that there are steps that can be taken to reduce the risk of human extinction. Governments, organizations, and individuals can all work together to reduce the risk of climate change, develop responsible AI, and address other potential threats. In addition, there are efforts underway to develop technology that could help humans survive in the event of a disaster.

Despite the potential risks, it is still possible that humans will be alive in the next 100 years. With the right measures in place, the odds of human extinction can be reduced, and the future of humanity can be secured. However, it is important to remain vigilant and take action now to ensure that humans will still be around in the next century.