The United States is finally going to get delayed job and inflation figures after weeks of not knowing what was going on. However, these long-awaited reports come with some big gaps that make it hard to understand how the economy is doing. The US Bureau of Labor Statistics is releasing data on jobs for both October and November. They are also releasing a Consumer Price Index report for November that makes up for some of the data that was missed during the government shutdown. The reintroduction of official figures gives policymakers and the markets some comfort, but the lack of important information means that the picture is still not complete.

The longest government shutdown in US history did more than just stop normal government work. It stopped the process of gathering data that supports some of the world's most carefully monitored economic indices. For the first time ever, there won't be an official unemployment rate for October. That gap alone is a historic breach in a data series that has been published regularly for decades and used by everyone from Federal Reserve officials to small company owners who are planning their next hire.

Timing is the main problem. It's not just a matter of pulling numbers from a database when you have time; employment and inflation statistics are real numbers. They rely on polls that are done at certain times each month. The Bureau of Labor Statistics uses two different polls done during the week that includes the 12th day of the month to find out how many people are working. One poll gets information from employers, whereas the other gets information directly from households. The government shutdown stopped all federal functions, hence the October household survey never happened. There is no way to figure out the unemployment rate, the participation rate in the labor force, or other variables related to workers' employment status without that poll.

This missing unemployment rate is not a little mistake. It takes away one of the clearest clues that the job market is tight or loose at a time when people are watching the economy intently for signs of slowdown. In the past few years, even tiny changes in the unemployment rate have had an effect on what the market thinks and what the Federal Reserve talks about when it comes to policy. Now, analysts have to guess about the state of things by looking at trends in payroll growth, job vacancies, and stories from companies.

The employer side of the job report, on the other hand, portrays a different story. The establishment survey, which keeps track of nonfarm payrolls, hours worked, and earnings by industry, kept going even while the government was shut down. Employers send in their answers electronically, and many did so as usual. Because of it, the Bureau of Labor Statistics was able to figure out the nonfarm payroll numbers for October once the government reopened. Instead of putting out a separate October employment report, the government decided to include those numbers in the November report.

Economists think that the establishment data will be fairly accurate from a technical point of view. Some others even think that response rates might be higher than usual. The time to collect data for November was extended, and extra time for processing was added to make sure everything was correct. The establishment survey from September already had an extraordinarily high response rate, much higher than the norm from the previous year. There is cautious hope that this trend continued into October and November. Even still, high-quality payroll data can't entirely make up for what is lost without the home survey.

Data on inflation has the same problems. The Consumer Price Index for October was completely canceled since government officials couldn't go to retailers, supermarkets, and service providers to get prices. The November CPI is likely to only have information from that month. Some parts that depend on trends or overlapping observations may provide us a partial picture of how prices changed in October, but it's still not clear how full that picture will be. One thing is for sure: we can't go back and figure out what the inflation rate was in October, just like we can't figure out what the unemployment rate was.

At this time, these problems are quite bad for US monetary policy. When deciding whether to raise, hold, or lower interest rates, policymakers at the Federal Reserve rely primarily on timely information about the job market and inflation. Policymakers often say that no one piece of data makes decisions, yet not having a whole month's worth of information makes things unclear. It makes people rely more on their own judgment, projections, and other signs, which can make it harder for people to agree on what they mean.

Businesses and investors are also feeling the uncertainty. Financial markets do well when things are clear, and economic data is a common point of reference. When those reference points are not there, volatility might go up when people react to rumors, incomplete information, or changed expectations. For firms, especially those that are sensitive to wage pressures or customer demand, the lack of clear signals makes planning harder. It gets tougher to figure out how to set prices, make hiring decisions, and plan investments.

There is also a bigger problem with public trust and stability. Not only do economic statistics get their authority from their methods, but also from how consistent they are. Even for good reasons, a gap in a long-running data set reminds people how important strong institutions are to modern economies. The Bureau of Labor Statistics has been clear about what can and can't be recovered, but this incident shows how political unrest may have real-world repercussions that transcend beyond government offices.

At the same time, it would be wrong to say that there is no information at all. The metrics for payroll growth, earnings, and inflation in November nevertheless give us useful information about underlying trends. A lot of economists think that the closure won't have a big effect on the quality of establishment survey data. Patterns that show up over several months can help smooth out problems caused by missing data. A report being late doesn't stop the economy from working, and it doesn't halt analysis either.

There are still questions that need to be answered. How strong was the job market really in October? Did inflation seem to be going down or staying the same that month? Those holes will never be completely filled up, and future historians will see October as an asterisk in the record. The episode reminds us that measuring the economy is both important and delicate. It relies on continuity, access, and faith in institutions to work well.