Oil prices are likely to go up when markets open after the United States carried out military strikes against Iran over the weekend. Experts believe the price of oil could increase by $3 to $5 per barrel due to fears of supply disruptions. If Iran responds strongly and causes major problems in oil production, prices could climb even higher.

The recent attacks by the US and Israel on Iran’s nuclear facilities have increased tensions in the Middle East, a region that plays a crucial role in global oil supply. Iran, which is the third-largest oil producer in OPEC, has warned that it will defend itself. This has raised concerns about possible disruptions in oil shipments, especially through key routes like the Strait of Hormuz, a vital passage for global oil trade.

Market analysts say that even if Iran does not retaliate immediately, the uncertainty will lead to higher oil prices. "An oil price jump is expected," said Jorge Leon, an energy expert at Rystad. "Even without immediate retaliation, markets will likely factor in a higher risk of supply problems." Another analyst, Ole Hvalbye from SEB, predicted that Brent crude oil, the global benchmark, could rise by $3 to $5 per barrel when trading begins.

Before the strikes, oil prices had dropped slightly after the US announced new sanctions on Iran, including restrictions on companies in Hong Kong. However, since the conflict between Israel and Iran began earlier this month, oil prices have already increased by about 10-11%. Despite this, prices have not skyrocketed because other OPEC countries have spare production capacity to make up for any shortages.

Giovanni Staunovo, an analyst at UBS, explained that oil prices usually stabilize if there are no actual supply cuts. "The direction of oil prices now depends on whether we see real disruptions in supply, which would push prices higher, or if the situation calms down, reducing the risk premium," he said.

One major concern is Iran’s threat to block the Strait of Hormuz, a critical shipping route for oil. A senior Iranian lawmaker recently warned that Tehran could close the strait if its vital interests are threatened. While another official said such action would only be taken in extreme cases, the possibility alone is enough to make markets nervous.

The situation remains unpredictable, and any further escalation could lead to bigger price increases. For now, traders and investors are closely watching how Iran responds and whether other oil-producing nations can compensate for any potential losses. If the conflict worsens, the world could see higher fuel prices, affecting everything from transportation to household expenses.

In summary, the recent US strikes on Iran have added a new layer of risk to global oil markets. While prices are expected to rise initially, the long-term impact will depend on whether the conflict escalates or cools down. With Iran being a major oil supplier, any disruption could have widespread effects, making this a critical issue for economies around the world.